There’s an old saying in real estate: “You make money when you buy, not when you sell.” Well, if that’s true, one can make more than a couple of strong arguments to buy real estate—now. Here are a four of my favorites:
1. The exotic gains made in commercial real estate from, say, 2000-2007 have now all but been wiped out—except for maybe the best of the best assets. Many studies show price reductions of 20-40 percent across the board for commercial real estate. And, in some markets, such as Las Vegas and Miami, those reductions could easily be greater. Real estate is on sale—relatively speaking.
2. The threat of inflation is the elephant in the room. Historically, real estate performs well in a high inflationary environment. As long as supply equals demand, real estate should be an excellent hedge against the potential tsunami of high inflation that seems to be headed our way.
3. Interest rates are currently at or near historic lows; multifamily rates are at those lows. Nothing is more exciting than having a 10-year, fixed rate loan at 5 percent, and inflation running rampant at 10 percent. (See point No. 2.)
4. Even during this recent downturn in values, good, well leased real estate was producing cash returns of 4-6 percent a year. Compared to alternative investments—even equities (S&P 500 stocks)—this cash-in-your-hands/money-in-your-pocket return has great appeal. So when you couple a decent annual cash flow with buying at a discount (see point No. 1), it is easy to make a compelling case for buying real estate, like now.
So, there you have it; four good reasons why now may be the best time to buy real estate in the last five or so years.
Of course there’s always an argument for the other side. Perhaps in a future blog, I can explore some of the reasons why now may not be the best time to buy.
Chuck Dannis is co-founder of Crosson Dannis Inc., which provides real estate appraisal and consultation services for many of the nation’s largest real estate lenders and owners. Contact him at cdannis@crossondannis.com.
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